Allstate - You're in good hands

Contact:

Megan Brunet
Communication Manager
Corporate Relations
megan.brunet@allstate.com

Allstate Insurance Company
2775 Sanders Road
Northbrook, IL 60062

Introduction

Allstate and The Allstate Foundation have shown a longstanding commitment of working to reduce the scourge of crashes involving teen drivers. This chronic public health issue claims the lives of more American teens than any other cause - about 6,000 every year, while injuring hundreds of thousands more.

In Spring/Summer 2008, Allstate conducted a nationwide safe teen driving campaign called "Action Against Distraction." As part of that effort, Allstate commissioned the "Allstate America's Teen Driving Hotspots" study of federal statistics and Allstate claims data to examine the frequency of fatal crashes involving teens down to the local level around the country.

This study examines recent federal crash statistics, Allstate claims data on teen collisions and U.S. Census bureau statistics to score metro areas nationwide on their rate of fatal crashes involving teen drivers. Allstate hopes these results will increase dialog about ways to diminish this problem and protect our nation's teens.

Allstate worked with Sperling's BestPlaces (www.bestplaces.net) - a Portland, Ore., research firm specializing in demographic studies and analysis - to conduct the study. Since 1985, Bert Sperling has analyzed demographics and other data to determine the "Best Places" to live, work, or retire. His work has appeared in and been conducted for many major publications. Sperling's Fast Forward, Inc. (the producer of BestPlaces.net) is responsible for more "Best Places" studies and projects than any other single organization.

In Allstate's broader campaign, "Action Against Distraction" focuses attention on the ever-increasing distractions that face drivers, especially inexperienced teens with their cell phones, mp3 players and friends in the car. Allstate is sponsoring the "Action Against Distraction Driver Challenge," a special driving course designed to show the dangers of distracted driving, teens will experience firsthand the impact of dangerous driving practices, such as texting and talking on the phone.

Allstate also continues to encourage parents to initiate a conversation with their teens about smart driving. This conversation can include completion of a Parent-Teen Driving Contract, which helps set guidelines for smart driving and consequences for not living up to those expectations. Parents and teens can fill out the interactive contract - setting their own expectations and consequences - online at www.allstate.com\teen.

Beyond personal and parental responsibility, research shows that teens need more time to develop driving skills. Allstate urges state lawmakers to enact better GDL (Graduated Drivers License) laws that allow novice drivers to gain driving experience gradually and under low-risk situations. An effective tool for saving lives, GDL laws typically involve longer periods of supervised driving, restrictions on late-night driving, limits on teen passengers and cell phone bans for drivers. Federal legislators should also pass legislation that provides uniform nationwide minimum standards for GDL laws, tying state's federal highway funds to at least meeting those standards. This study incorporates the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety's state-by-state rankings of GDL law effectiveness.

Scope

The Allstate "America's Teen Driving Hotspots" study identifies "hotspot" U.S cities where fatal crash rates involving teen drivers are highest. The study examines recent federal crash statistics, Allstate claims data on teen collisions and U.S. Census bureau statistics to score metro areas nationwide on their rate of fatal crashes involving teen drivers.

Summary of Findings

The 10 deadliest hotspots among the nation's 50 largest metro areas are concentrated in the southern United States and include four in Florida. The metropolitan areas (a central city and its surrounding counties) that were the greatest hotspots for fatal teen crashes are:

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
Orlando-Kissimmee, FL
Jacksonville, FL
Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro, TN
Birmingham-Hoover, AL
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ
Kansas City, MO-KS
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA
Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC
Louisville, KY-IN

The 10 least deadly teen driving hotspots (of the largest 50 metro areas) are:

San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA
Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI
Salt Lake City, UT
Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA
Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI
Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA

(See complete list in "50 Largest Metro Areas By Teen Driving Score" chart later in this report.)

The study also found that teens driving in rural areas across America are involved in fatal crashes at a higher frequency than those in metropolitan areas. Nationally, fatal crash rates for teens were over twice as high for rural areas (51.5 crashes per 100,000 teens) than for metro areas (25.4 crashes per 100,000 teens). The greatest difference in rural crash rates over metropolitan crash rates was seen in the state of Florida, with Delaware and Utah also posting significant differences.

While overall numbers of fatal crashes are generally higher in the nation's large cities, when determining rates based on population, the most deadly areas in the United States tend to be rural, sprawling (less densely population), and in the South. Inland California is also a regional hotspot. The least deadly areas tend to be large, densely-populated metro areas, and generally located in the West and Northeast.

Another significant finding is that male teen drivers are involved in fatal crashes at a rate over twice as great as that for female teens at the national level. The study also found that the 18 and 19-year-olds comprise well over half the number of teen-related crashes. The number of 15, 16, and 17 year-old drivers involved in fatal crashes is significantly less than older teen drivers.

States

The study also analyzed teen fatal crashes at the state level, not just those in metro areas. The states with the highest rates of fatal crashes involving a teen driver are:

Mississippi
Alabama
Kentucky
Missouri
Arkansas

These and other states have a much smaller percent of their population in large metro areas compared to such as states like Florida and Tennessee.

Males vs. Females

Examining the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) data at the state level, the study finds that in every state, male teen drivers are involved in a higher percentage of the fatal crashes than female teen drivers.

Of the state's fatal crashes involving a teen driver, the percentage of male drivers behind the wheel range from 58% (Alaska) to 84% (Hawaii). The average and median for all states (and D.C.) is 70%, meaning that the male/female ratio of teen drivers is 2.33 to 1. Stated another way, for every fatal crash involving a teenaged girl, there will be 2.33 for teenaged boys (at the national level). One can also say that boys were involved in 133% more fatal crashes, or their rate of crashes was 233% that of girls.

Ages of Drivers

Looking at a distribution of the ages of drivers involved teen-involved fatal crashes, we see an interesting pattern. One might expect that a higher percent of teen drivers involved in fatal crashes are younger, due to driver inexperience and youthful poor judgment. Instead, we find that the average age of drivers in our study steadily increases until leveling at the ages of 18 and 19, as shown in this table:

This may be due to a lower number of drivers at the ages of 15, 16, and 17. This is certainly the case with 15-year-olds, who likely are driving with learners permits at that age. It may be that there are considerably more 18 and 19-year-old drivers, hence the greater percentage of drivers of that age involved in fatal crashes.

Looking at the individual states, we see that some states contradict this trend, showing a higher percent of their younger teen drivers involved in fatal crashes. These states are often located in the Great Plains or Midwest and associated with farming, such as Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Wyoming, North and South Dakota. These states are among those that grant driving privileges at an earlier age.

Rural vs. Metro areas

Examining the rate of fatal crashes involving teens, the study finds that rural areas have a much higher rate of fatal crashes involving teen drivers than the rate in metro areas. Nationally, fatal crash rates for teens were over twice as high for rural areas (51.5 crashes per 100,000 teens) than for metro areas (25.4).

The study defines "rural areas" as those counties that were not included as one of the study's metro areas, i.e. not containing a major city or a suburb. The study examined the 361 major metro areas, defined by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Office of Management and Budget.

As a reference, about 50% of the US population live in the 50 largest metros, about 65% in the 100 largest metros, and nearly 80% in all 361 major metropolitan areas. A metropolitan area is defined as a central city or cities of 50,000 or more, and the surrounding county or counties, depending on the portion of the work force which commute between the counties.

At the national level, rural areas have a rate of fatal crashes involving teen drivers more than twice as high as the same rate in metro areas (51.5 fatal crashes per 100,000 teens vs. 25.4 for metros.)

This same trend was found in every state - rural areas had a higher rate of fatal teen driving crashes than metropolitan areas.

The difference between the crash rate in rural and metro areas vary from a high in the state of Utah (55.8 rural vs. 17.3 metro - a 223% difference) to Alaska (30.2 rural vs. 26.8 metro - a 30% difference.)

In two states, Rhode Island and New Jersey, and the District of Columbia, all counties of the state are classified as part of a metro area.

Crashes by Month of Year

When totaled by month, the majority of fatal crashes involving teen drivers occurred in the summer months of June, July, and August. This is one reason Allstate's "Action Against Distraction" campaign launches as the school year comes to a close.

The months of January and February had the smallest percentage of the fatal crashes nationwide, but specific crashes rate vary by state (See "Deadliest Months for Fatal Crashes by 50 Largest Metros" chart).

July, the month with the greatest number of crashes, had 51.4% more crashes than February, which had the least number of crashes. (Note: The analysis does not account for the fact that February has the least numbers of days of any month. When considering the daily rate of crashes, January was the lowest month. July had 39.8% more crashes than January.)

Contributing Factors

The FARS database tracks nearly 100 factors which contribute to crashes, and several may be identified for each crash. The study takes a closer look at four of the contributing factors which may be associated with teen driving; speeding, alcohol use, drug use, and lack of seatbelt use.

While parents surveyed generally identify drunk driving as their greatest concern, speeding is actually the leading cause cited in fatal crashes involving teen drivers nationwide. Law enforcement cited speeding as a factor in 34.4% of fatal crashes nationally. Among the 50 largest metro areas, it ranged from a high of 51.0% in Providence, RI to a low of 15.3% in Detroit.

Alcohol was identified as a contributing factor in 11.9% of crashes nationally during the seven years from 2000 through 2006. Among the 50 largest metro areas in our study, crashes in Denver show the highest rate of DUI involvement in teen fatal crashes nationwide (21.2%), while Miami had the lowest at just 4.5%.

Drugs were identified as a contributing factor at a much lower rate than alcohol in our study. As is the case with alcohol, Denver is also the metro with the highest percent of drugs as a factor. Minneapolis, MN and Milwaukie, WI showed the lowest rates.

Lack of seatbelt use was listed as a contributing factor in 33.0% of fatal crashes involving teens nationwide. Lack of seatbelt use as a reported factor ranged from a high of 54.6% in Richmond, VA and a low of 7.1% in San Jose, CA. California shows the lowest rate of non-seatbelt use, with all six of the California metros appearing in the bottom eight spots.

The FARS documentation notes that states vary in their determination and reporting of alcohol and drug use. Accordingly, we recommend that the reader of these statistics should perform additional research before relying on them for any substantive decisions.

Methodology

Metros Areas

For this study, Sperling's Best Places focused on metropolitan statistical areas in the United States. These metro areas are defined by the United State Census Bureau, and include a central city and the surrounding county (or counties.) This methodology fits well with existing statistics which are available by county from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). Also, the concept of a metro area encompasses the surrounding suburbs where much of an area's population has their residence.

Data and sources

The primary source of Sperling Best Places' data for the analysis was the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS). FARS is a data system conceived, designed, and developed by the National Center for Statistics and Analysis (NCSA) to assist the traffic safety community in identifying traffic safety problems and evaluating both motor vehicle safety standards and highway safety initiatives. FARS is one of the 2 major sources of data used at the NCSA: http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/departments/nrd-30/ncsa/FARS.html

Fatality information derived from FARS includes motor vehicle traffic crashes that result in the death of an occupant of a vehicle or a nonmotorist within 30 days of the crash. FARS contains data on all fatal traffic crashes within the 50 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico. The data is also available down to the county level, which fits well with the metro area concept, since metros areas are comprised of counties.

To access the low-level FARS data for our analysis, Sperling's Best Places downloaded Vehicle and Driver crash records from the FARS ftp server, for the seven years from 2000 through 2006. The study authors wanted to have enough records to provide a robust sample size for the less-populated metro areas.

The study scores also take into account teen driver state-level crash-incidence data provided by Allstate.

Data notes

From the FARS data tables for the seven years from 2000 through 2006, Sperling's Best Places selected 43,437 instances of fatal crashes involving a teen driver. The teen driver may or may not be one of the fatalities, and the crash may have involved more than one vehicle. Also, it is not know if the teen driver was at fault for the crash. These are simply fatal crashes in which a teen driver was involved.

The term "teen driver" was defined as someone of 15 to 19 years of age.

The number of fatalities resulting from crashes involving teen drivers ranged from 3,928 for Texas to 33 for the District of Columbia. The study derived a per capita figure to allow comparison between small and large metro areas. The per capita calculation used the population of 15-19 year-olds from the U.S. Census, and we adjusted the population figures on an annual basis as the metro area's population increased or decreased between the years 2000 and 2006. This adjustment accounted for differences in those places with an older population (Punta Gorda, FL- 4.3% teens) or younger (Ithaca, NY-12.6% teens).

The study used the following data fields from the FARS tables:

State case number
Age
Sex
State
County
Drinking involvement
Drug involvement
Restraint use
Driver - contributing factors (up to four per record)
Person - contributing factors (up to three per record)
Vehicle number
Person number (driver, passenger, etc.)
Day
Month
Year
Hour

Nearly 100 contributing factors were also analyzed, in the following general categories:

Physical/Mental Condition
Vision Obscured By
Avoiding, Swerving, Or Sliding Due To
Possible Distractions (inside vehicle)
Other Miscellaneous Factors

Scoring

Each metro area in the study receives points for each of the criteria based on their relation to the other city's scores in that data category. To maintain consistency throughout the study, the data element for any given category which shows the best teen driving receives a score of 100 points. The data element for any given category which is associated with the worst teen driving receives a score of 0 points.

The remaining cities are assigned point values between 0 and 100 based on their data element's percentage of the range between the most desirable ('best') score in that category and the least desirable ('worst') score in that category. In this way, the point values assigned to cities preserve the proportionality of the data points in relation to the data set while providing a common point scale.

Category scores are weighted and aggregated to determine a teen driving index for each metro area.

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